“Signals are facts. The noise distracts us from the truth. ” – Nate Silver (statistician and founder of FiveThirtyeight)
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The highest link is Travelier CEO noam toister shouted out Skift degree Travel status Report skipped $198B of ground and offshore industries (unless it is sponsored).
The chart tracks Google searches for “market bubbles” and “AI bubbles”. These spikes reflect public anxiety, often caused by media narratives. Historically, whenever the media gets hooked on a bubble, the investors they listen to miss out on the historical gains in the tech space.
Since the peak of the “market bubble” search in 2005, the number of Nasdaqs has exceeded 10 times. Since 2021, it has increased by more than 70%.
Media noise is not a signal. As Ben Horowitz said:
You have nothing to say to the media, which will make them love you more than to say that investors and entrepreneurs chasing AI are idiots. The media is usually the haters, that is the haters’ red meat – Ben Horowitz, Lenny's podcast
The founder who keeps building real things under the hype is the one who ends up appearing.
exist The latest episode In Lenny's podcast, Ben Horowitz clearly sees AI hysteria. His point is that it may feel like a bubble, but it's not all over the internet age.
Dot-Com Calls removes a generation of startups, but the core betting on the internet is correct. What makes it a bubble is that many businesses don't work. They burned cash, no real product, no revenue, and no clear path to scale.
That's not what we see with AI. Many products are already working on a large scale today. They show real usage, strong unit economics and, in some cases, record growth. Horowitz also noted that although the underlying model layer may merge, the application layer is still open.
All in all, the hype can be big, but math actually works.
What Andrew Chen said to him is great Counterclaim. You share your idea, someone closes it with a single line: “Isn’t Openai just going to add this?”… “The network is too powerful and you will never beat Instagram.”…” Another subscription? Everybody is canceling anyway.”
Andrew's point is that most counterclaims are lazy. 99% of startups do fail, so the criticism is statistically “correct”. But 1% of success is because the founders ignore relaxed cynicism and perseverance.
This move is to identify its nature’s counterclaim: noise. Sometimes, there is a real signal below that you should listen. But don't let these lazy ones make you stand out. The best way to surround counterclaims is a sharp propaganda that solves the usual problems but forces people to interact with the actual new things.
If you ever had the idea of firing yourself with a single line, you'll be connected to Andrew's post. He classifies counterclaims in various forms, but also shows how to work around it. Worth a read. Read + Andrew Chen
We all hear the words “hire people who are better than yourself.” Sounds good, but there isn't much reason to repeat. Ben Horowitz explains why it matters.
For example, as a vice president of engineering, you can coach and grow your team because you know your field and have credibility. As CEO, no longer effective. You don't have expertise in marketing, finance, sales, HR or operations that can take someone from average to world-class and the company can't afford what you spend your time trying.
What you need is leverage. If you are the one who drives executives to act, then there is no it. The real leverage is when they push you, bring new ideas, discover blind spots and move the company faster than you alone.
yYou won't make people great. You will find the people who make you great, make your company great, and you learn great people from it, not the other way around. – Ben Horowitz, co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz
Horowitz also warns that the founder's desire to be loved is dangerous. In the long run, leaders should be loved and respected in ways they like and respect. Sometimes this means saying things people don’t want to hear. They may not like you at the moment, but can save on the company.
If everyone agrees to your decision, you will not add any value. Without you, they would do it. The only time to add value is when you make a decision that most people don’t like. This is what leadership is. – Ben Horowitz, co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz
I'll put it together His dialogue cleaning transcript On Lenny's podcast, this podcast delves into these perspectives.
Tom Orbach summed up the valuable lessons of Derek Thompson’s “Hit Makers” that are worth a look. We tend to think of viral growth as a chain reaction: 1→10→100→1,000→100,000…. Actually, this is how most things are popular: 1→a huge share→100,000. Distribution more through WHO Share it, not do much.
We should spend less effort hoping that our products or content “spread” through organic differences and more energy to figure out who is the main trusted broadcaster in our space and how to earn amplified energy.
Thomas Reiner just posted a stark breakdown that Admitic AI might gain real appeal, and it won't.
The key idea is that proxy AI will be driven by how much people trust AI to act for them and how difficult the task is. Travel is messy, emotional and high-risk, which makes it the perfect test site.
Simple and low-risk tasks such as Trip Inspiration or Price Comerts are easy to win. High-risk, highly frictional jobs, such as end-to-end bookings, multi-family itineraries or border permits, are all in the Border Bet quadrant. Adoption will be unevenly launched; quick victory will be successful first, but the real moat is built in the messy, complex work travelers care most. Read + Thomas Reiner
In San Francisco, Waymo’s driverless rides have become a novel experience for visitors, with some booking third-party “Waymo Tours” for up to $149 and including parking at City Landmarks while highlighting the empty driver seats on social media. (Read + SF Chronicles article).
Waymo's Tourism Impact Report Recognizing growing out-of-town demand, with weekly tourist ride bookings up more than 10%, contributing an estimated $39 million in additional visitor spending, $5.5 million in Robotaxi revenue and $247,000 in local tax revenue. This is Waymo still has no right to pick up passengers at SF Airport.
A century ago, the “No Horseback Riding” parade attracted crowds on city streets. Today, visitors in San Francisco line up to take photos of driverless cars and pay for rides.
Propellic just published one of the first behavioral studies on how travelers actually use Google’s new AI model. The data show some clear changes: Travelers spend more time planning in AI chats, but move quickly when booking, AI answers have a high trust rating (4.3/5), and bookings are overwhelmingly straight to the operator (80%) rather than OTA (13%). The inline link in the AI answer gets most of the clicks, while the right-hand result is barely registered.
This is an early view of how AI interfaces can change consumer behavior. have a look The full report is here.
Google Cloud releases its second annual ROI of AI According to a survey of more than 3,400 senior leaders. Some highlights:
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88% of early adopters of proxy AI said they have seen positive ROI in at least one use case.
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The highest reported earnings include 70% increase in productivity, 63% increase in customer experience, 56% increase in revenue and 55% impact in marketing.
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Early adopters allocated half of their future AI budget to agents and have deployed more than 10 agents in various operations.
The report is full of benchmarks on how businesses use AI agents and how they find the fastest returns. Read the full report here
They promised us the car we were flying. For decades, it sounded like a line of explosions, but the pieces started to merge together.
Jason just Delivered the first single seat evtolAfter less than an hour of ground training, Oculus founder Palmer Luckey took a flight. Jetson One is available for purchase, but new orders are not shipped slightly. The vehicle costs $128,000 and does not require a pilot's driver's license. The company sold out of vehicles in 2025 and 2026, with the earliest shipping year in 2027.
Toys as millionaires are easy to fire, but that's the beginning of the future market. Battery density, lightweight materials, stable systems and consumer interest are all catching up. What is still missing is the infrastructure stack to support it. If personal air mobility becomes even a reality, it will require new layers: airspace mapping, routing logic, micro-airport networks, insurance models, weather coverage, maintenance coordination, security and compliance.
The backend of the sky can still be caught.
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