Next year, NASA hopes to launch Artemis-3 with two commercial contractors, including billionaire Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin and billionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX. However, neither company is ready yet, with both rockets set to launch landers next year currently grounded by the FAA after Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket exploded last night.
The fallout from last night's explosion, combined with other Starship mishaps, could have a major impact on NASA's recent Artemis plans to land another lunar landing before China.
SpaceX Starship now faces more pressure to get Artemis-3 operational
Starship recently underwent its 12th test, a new and enhanced version of the previous design. The huge booster was supposed to return to Earth in a controlled, powered descent, but on its 12th flight, an engine failed, causing the booster to crash into the ocean instead of making a controlled soft landing on the waves. Therefore, the plan is currently on hold until they find the cause and solution.
The starship itself performed well and soft-landed itself before exploding, as expected.
With the loss of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket, SpaceX is now under increased pressure to get Starship operational. NASA also gave Blue Origin a contract to develop a lunar lander for the Artemis mission. It's called Blue Moon and will launch from New Glenn.
With last night's explosion destroying half of the launch site, it's a safe bet that repairs will take 6 to 12 months before the LC-36 can be put into service again.
Otherwise, New Glenn only flew three times, and the third launch actually failed to put the payload into the correct orbit. So even if the launch pads are repaired, they still don't fly safely and consistently enough for NASA to really trust it. So, is Artemis-3 still realistic in 2027?
A cargo version of Blue Moon is currently being tested in Houston, but right now it doesn't have a rocket to launch to the moon. It was scheduled to launch this year to demonstrate to NASA how it works through an unmanned lunar landing and provide the first payloads to support future astronauts.
However, Blue's lander can be mounted on NASA's Artemis SLS rocket, which is used to carry astronauts to Orion.
Blue Origin had planned to start launching Artemis infrastructure and payloads to the moon this year, but now that won't happen
NASA also awarded Blue Origin a contract Transport payloads and lunar rover to the moon for the Artemis program that will begin using New Glenn later this year. With last night's explosion, those plans are now gone.
NASA has proven twice that their SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft are effective for Artemis. Now, Blue Origin and SpaceX will deliver on their promise.
Artemis-3 is scheduled to launch next year as a test in Earth orbit where the crew of NASA's Orion spacecraft will conduct docking and rendezvous tests with the lander. But if the lander and rocket aren't ready, there's no mission. This also means there will be no moon landing in 2028. Everything will continue to be delayed further.
Both Blue Origin and SpaceX have now shifted their focus more toward lander development to stay within the timeline expectations of President and NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman. No doubt both companies will work things out. But will they do it before China?
