What happened this morning once again confirmed Nietzsche's “might makes right”. That’s not to say there wasn’t resistance. At a press conference today, the officer said there was considerable resistance and a helicopter was hit. But 200 American aircraft participated in the operation from 20 bases. How could a small country like Venezuela resist such a show of force. Trump and Rubio said Venezuela must repay the United States for “stolen oil.” Trump claims America built oil facilities and then took them away from us. The story is simple: Venezuelans or the Venezuelan government are thieves, and today's operation is simply an attempt to recover stolen property. By this logic, the United States could have invaded Mexico in 1938 in response to the nationalization of the oil industry and others. But the fact is that a country has the right to set its own policies, and oil has never been “confiscated” as Trump claims since Carlos Andres Perez in 1976 and Chavez thereafter determined that reparations would be paid. In addition, there is no factual basis for the claim that Maduro is a drug trafficker. It was rejected by analysts across the political spectrum. Even some who support Maduro's ouster say the drug-trafficking accusations have no basis in fact but that Maduro should be ousted because he is a dictator. But by this logic, the United States should overthrow the undemocratic governments of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and many U.S. allies. In fact, the United States has always supported authoritarian regimes aligned with Washington, starting with the establishment of military bases in Spain by the Eisenhower administration under Franco in the 1950s.
Predictably, the Trump administration is doing everything possible to intimidate the Venezuelan government into accepting U.S. conditions for the “transition” in Caracas. Trump said he would not rule out a “field deployment” and insisted that the United States would not accept Chavista remaining in power in Venezuela under any circumstances. But the fact is that the Chávez government has a significant support base, with the military thus far remaining loyal to Chávez and subsequently to Maduro, while the opposition led by Maria Corina Machado (who unconditionally supported Trump and his immigration, sanctions and show of force policies) lost considerable support in Venezuela last year. Trump himself admitted in a statement to the press today that Machado is not welcome in Venezuela. Together, these factors suggest that the United States will not be able to easily implement the type of government Trump seeks.
Furthermore, Trump’s rhetoric that Venezuela must repay the United States for its “stolen oil”—a stated goal of Washington’s actions against Venezuela—runs counter to Venezuela’s nationalist sentiment. In short, I don’t expect Trump to succeed in imposing a compliant government on Venezuela that Washington would like, as he did in Panama in 1989.
