The company announced Monday that STR and Tourism Economics have lowered U.S. hotel forecasts for the full year for 2025 and 2026, citing “improving macroeconomic issues” and hotel performance in the first quarter, which have not yet been forecasted. In addition, the analytical research and consulting firm proposed on Monday also lowered its forecast for U.S. hotels in 2025.
Str parent company Costar and Tourism Economics have now planned to drop U.S. hotel occupancy rate to 62.8% in 2025 from 63% in 2024. The company expects occupancy to be 63.1% in 2025 in previous forecasts in January.
These companies are now also projecting the average U.S. daily exchange rate to a year-on-year growth of 1.3% in 2025 Predict in advance 1.6%. They now predict revenue per available room will increase by 1% year-on-year in 2024, and also fell 1.8% from January's forecast.
Amanda Hite, chairman of the New York University annual International Hospitality Investment Conference, on Monday listed first-quarter occupations for the upscale and upscale mid-term phases as part of the company’s dynamics revision forecast.
“The first quarter of this year wasn’t as strong as we expected, so we really need to modify the forecast,” Hurt said.
Hite still notes that the company expects annual growth in the RevPAR year to date in the demand for U.S. hotels in 2025.
“It's much better than where you're expecting to be reading headlines right now,” Hite said, adding that hotel reservations in June look “stable” but bookings are a bit softer in July and August, which may reflect a shortened booking window.
STR and tourism economics predict occupancy will rise to 63% in 2026, with ADR increasing by 1.3% year-on-year and Revpar growth of 1.5%.
LARC cut forecast
Meanwhile, LARC expects U.S. hotel occupancy rate to drop 0.8% from 2024 levels in 2025, ADR to 2.1%, and Revpar to 1.3%. In the company Latest previous forecasts In March, it expects occupancy rate to fall by 0.6% year-on-year in 2025, ADR increased by 3.7% and REVPAR increased by 3.1%.
In a letter to clients, LARC president and co-founder Ryan Meliker said that “the economic outlook is greatly reduced” is the reason for the forecast downgrade.
Allocation of company demand in the tentative U.S. hotel market
Meliker pointed out three factors that affect the economy in his letter, “all linked to the policies of the current presidential administration: “Ambiguousness of its size and duration, a reduction in federal spending and the decline in U.S. international travel aggressiveness.
Additionally, according to Meliker, “slowing business investments and falling corporate profits may limit business spending and temporary business demand”.
