From 2025 Hunter Hotel Investment Conference In Atlanta, Marriott Marquis surrounds the ambiguity of the hotel industry and hotel investment environment. Every hotel company is associated with uncertainty in different ways—management companies and REITs have different perspectives—but one thing remains the same: data. While perspectives may vary, these numbers will tell the story of the industry at the current moment. The “Key Statistics Shaping Hotels in 2025” panel reveals data from four different companies and speculates on the potential impact.
The following data points stand out on the panel:
1The forecast points to a potential slowdown.
Jan D. Freitag, national director of hotel analysis at Costar Group, noted that multiple forecast engines have raised the view of their recession – Oxford Economics, especially from 20% to 30%. While Costar plans to update its forecasts, Freitag said that while uncertainty about the current state of the hotel industry is realistic, forecasts for 2026 and 2027 expect some data balance. But, Freitag said: “We stick our neck out and have forecasts for the 26-year-old 26-year-old, but with truck salt. This will be revised.” Freitag also mentioned the need to monitor external factors and performance forks between the upper and lower ends of the market.
2Leisure-centric segments may be more resilient.
Mark Lomanno, partner and senior consultant at Kalibri Labs, presented data focusing on demand trends within hotel spaces. Specifically, “about 55% of demand is leisure, which is what has supported the industry in the last few years. This is the benefit of a variety of reasons. One is that they stay longer; two is that they are less sensitive than corporate travelers and group travelers.” Because leisure travel may remain flat, leisure-centric hotels may be more resilient than other sectors. As Lomanno points out, “Uncertainty equals restraint.”
3The decline in profit margins shows that the high profit seen during the Covid-19-19-19 pandemic recovery is unsustainable.
In 2021, “we’re seeing revenues rise and expenses fall” and in 2022, “everything starts to recover. We’re seeing expenses rise, but our revenues grow dramatically.” As profit margins reach a “record high,” some hope this is normal for the industry in the future. “Well, that's not sustainable,” Mandbaum said, “the past two years “has lacked revenue growth. We're lagging behind inflation now, and we're lagging behind payments growth.”
4Short-term rentals have also experienced unpredictable performance, but growth has declined and there is a lack of new supply in the market.
Jamie Lane, senior vice president of analytics, chief economist at Airdna, shared that supply growth is unpredictable despite relatively good performance in the short-term rental market. Often, demand is moving towards a larger list, and the industry has the ability to reshape itself based on demand trends. However, Ryan points out that the industry is not without fair uncertainty. “You would think there will be more supply in the short term rental industry. …Now, when we go into 2025, we're actually seeing 60 markets, and there are actually 60 markets that are dropping in supply.”
